Every year, thousands of Indian students ask Maven some version of the same question: is the US still the right country to bet my degree, my savings, and a few years of my life on? In 2027, that question carries more weight than usual — not because studying in America has stopped working, but because the rules around what happens after graduation have shifted more in the past 18 months than in the previous decade combined.

This isn’t a piece designed to scare you out of the US, or to reassure you into it. It’s the honest, numbers-first breakdown we’d give a student sitting across the table from us — including the parts that are genuinely still working, and the parts where the story has gotten harder.

What Actually Changed in the US in 2025-2026

Three separate developments have reshaped the calculus for Indian students. They’re often reported together, which causes confusion — so here’s each one, on its own.

1. Duration of Status Ends on September 15, 2026

For more than three decades, F-1 students were admitted to the US for “Duration of Status” (D/S) — meaning they could remain as long as they kept meeting their program’s requirements, with no fixed expiry stamped on entry. On July 17, 2026, DHS published a final rule ending that system. Starting September 15, 2026, F-1 and J-1 students will instead be admitted for a fixed period tied to their program end date, capped at four years, plus grace periods for arrival and departure.

Students already in the US on D/S before the effective date get a transition cushion — they generally keep their current 60-day grace period until they either travel and re-enter, or need to file an Extension of Stay. But the practical effect going forward is real: your I-94 will now carry a hard expiry date, and staying beyond it — including, in some cases, for OPT or STEM OPT — may require a separate Extension of Stay application with USCIS rather than an automatic continuation.

2. The H-1B $100,000 Fee — Currently Not Being Collected

On September 19, 2025, a presidential proclamation imposed a $100,000 fee on certain new H-1B petitions — specifically those filed for workers outside the US who require consular processing. Even at the time, USCIS guidance clarified this fee did not apply to change-of-status petitions for people already in the US, which covers most F-1 students moving from OPT into H-1B status. The fee was aimed at new offshore hiring, not the standard student-to-H-1B pipeline.

Here’s the part most coverage has gotten out of date on: on June 8, 2026, a federal district court in Massachusetts vacated the fee entirely, ruling it an unlawful tax that bypassed Congress. The government appealed, and on July 24, 2026, the First Circuit Court of Appeals declined to reinstate the fee while that appeal continues. As of this writing, the $100,000 fee is not being collected. That said, the underlying appeal is still open, and the fee’s legal status could change again — this is not a settled matter, and any Maven family should verify the current status before making a decision based on it.

3. A New Wage-Weighted H-1B Lottery

Separately, DHS finalized a rule replacing the traditional random H-1B lottery with a wage-weighted selection system, effective February 27, 2026. Instead of one entry per registration, higher-wage job offers now receive multiple entries — Level III and IV wage offers get three and four entries respectively, while Level I (entry-level) offers get just one. The FY2027 season, held under this new system, saw registrations fall sharply and selection skew heavily toward senior, higher-paid roles. More on what this means for odds below.

The Real Numbers: What’s Actually Happening

Policy changes matter, but the numbers show how students and universities have already responded.

The proximate cause of the visa collapse was a near month-long pause on student visa interviews in mid-2025, layered on top of expanded social media screening and tighter vetting. Whether issuance rebounds toward historical norms for the 2027 intake is genuinely uncertain — interview capacity has partially recovered, but scrutiny levels haven’t reverted.

OPT and STEM OPT: Still Intact, With a New Wrinkle

The core numbers haven’t moved: post-completion OPT still runs 12 months, and STEM-eligible degrees still qualify for a 24-month extension, giving eligible graduates up to 3 years of work authorization. That’s unchanged and remains one of the US’s genuine structural advantages over most competitor countries.

What’s changed is the paperwork around it. Because Duration of Status is ending, some students applying for OPT or STEM OPT after September 15, 2026 may need to file a matching Extension of Stay with USCIS to keep their I-94 aligned with their EAD card — a step that previously happened automatically. The I-765 filing fee (used for both initial OPT and STEM OPT applications) has also risen, from $1,685 to $1,780 in 2026. Individually minor; together, one more compliance step in a system that used to run on autopilot.

H-1B Lottery Odds in 2027, Realistically

For the FY2027 cap season — the first run entirely under the new weighted system — USCIS received 211,600 eligible registrations, down 38.5% from 343,981 the year before, and confirmed the 85,000 cap was reached with no second lottery. That produced an overall selection rate of roughly 40.2%, higher than recent years largely because the total pool shrank.

But the average hides the real story. Only 17.7% of selected registrations were at the lowest wage level (Level I, typically entry-level roles), while 71.5% of selected beneficiaries held US advanced degrees — up sharply from 57% the year before. In plain terms: a US master’s degree and a genuinely senior-track job offer now matter more to your H-1B odds than they used to. A strong US STEM master’s from a program with real industry placement, targeting a role with a competitive salary, sits in a meaningfully better position than a bachelor’s-level applicant chasing an entry-level offer.

The EB-2/EB-3 India Green Card Backlog — The Part Nobody Wants to Say Out Loud

This is the number that most changes the long-term math, and it’s the one competitor content tends to skip. As of the August 2026 Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India is unavailable — the category hit its FY2026 annual cap early, and Final Action Dates for both EB-2 and EB-3 India sit around 2013-2014, meaning a realistic wait of 11 to 13-plus years for many applicants filing today. The root cause is structural, not political: a 7% per-country cap on employment-based green cards, unchanged since 1990, applied to a country that generates a disproportionate share of demand.

This isn’t new information, but it matters more now because the H-1B lottery has gotten harder to win in the first place, and the fixed-status system adds compliance overhead on top of an already long wait. If your plan for the US assumes “H-1B, then green card within a few years,” that assumption needs revisiting — regardless of what happens with the $100,000 fee.

Where the US Still Genuinely Wins

Despite everything above, these advantages still hold firmly in place for Indian students weighing the US for 2027.

• Research depth and university prestige — for cutting-edge fields (AI, biotech, advanced engineering), the concentration of top-ranked programs and funded research remains unmatched globally.
• Salary ceiling — US tech, finance, and engineering compensation, even adjusted for cost of living, still tends to outpace Canada, the UK, and most of Europe for the same role.
• 3-year OPT/STEM OPT runway — for STEM graduates, this remains one of the longest post-study work windows of any major destination.
• Alternative visa routes — for genuinely exceptional candidates (strong publications, patents, awards), the O-1 visa offers an uncapped path that sidesteps the H-1B lottery entirely.
• Depth of industry — Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and the broader US startup ecosystem still offer a density of opportunity few countries can replicate.

Where It Doesn’t

• Cost — a two-year master’s at a private US university routinely runs USD 70,000-100,000+ in tuition alone, before living costs, well above Germany, France, or most of continental Europe.
• Immigration uncertainty — three major policy changes in under two years is a lot of moving ground to plan a decade-long career on.
• Lottery dependency — unlike Canada’s points-based PR pathway, US employment immigration still runs largely on a lottery, now weighted against entry-level candidates.
• The green card wait — even a “successful” H-1B outcome can mean a decade-plus in temporary status before permanent residency.

US vs. Other Destinations: Quick Comparison

Here is how the US stacks up against other popular destinations that Indian students are actively considering for 2027.

For a deeper look at how the numbers compare, see our USA vs Canada breakdown and our country-wise ROI guide.

Who Should Still Choose the US in 2027

The US still makes strong sense if you’re headed into a genuine STEM shortage field with funding or a strong assistantship, targeting research or academia, applying to a program with a documented track record of OPT-to-H-1B conversion in your field, or you have an alternative path (O-1 eligibility, family-based options, or a low dependency on the H-1B specifically).

It’s worth reconsidering, or at least budgeting a Plan B, if your plan depends entirely on winning the H-1B lottery in a non-shortage or generalist field, you’re financing the degree heavily through loans against an uncertain post-study outcome, or your primary goal is a fast, predictable path to permanent residency — where Canada or Germany currently offer a clearer, less lottery-dependent route.

Frequently Asked Questions

Conclusion: An Honest Verdict, Not a Sales Pitch

The US hasn’t stopped working for Indian students — but it has stopped being the default, low-friction choice it once was. Visa issuance has fallen sharply, student status now carries a hard expiry clock, the H-1B lottery rewards seniority over entry-level offers, and the green card queue for Indians runs past a decade regardless of what happens with any single fee. None of that makes the US the wrong choice. It makes it a choice that deserves real numbers, not brand-name momentum, behind it.

If your field, funding, and risk tolerance line up with what the US still does best, it remains one of the strongest bets in the world. If they don’t, that’s exactly the conversation worth having before you commit — not after.